Abstract
Change is inevitable and everywhere. Resources, ecosystem, biophysical environment, and land use/cover on the surface of the earth undergo continuous change over time and space. Land cover is the layer of soil and biomass, including natural vegetation, crops and man made infrastructures that cover the land surface. Land use is the purpose for which human exploit land cover [Verburg et al., 2000]. LULC change is probably the most important form of global environment changes due to its direct relevance with human existence and spatio-temporal nature. The land use changes also have significant implications in climatic changes as well [Scavia et al., 2002], which in turn brings the modification in future land use change. There is also a considerable impact of human intervention on ecology and thus land use land cover change, studying these changes over a considerable time frame reveals the complex yet predictable nature of the change. Modelling of these land use changes can prove to be very much useful in order to understand and predict future scenarios. Land use modelling requires analysing the biophysical and socio-economic drivers for land use change and then incorporating these to study the impact of human dimensions on LULC dynamics. The models help us understand the LULC changes for different socio-economic scenarios within its defined biophysical context.
This thesis aims at the study, analyse and model the LULC changes taking place in the Godavari river basin in the country of India, and to predict the LULC map of 2025 for the basin. The whole process involved creation of Land Use, demographic, socio-economic, topographic, climatic, infrastructure and biophysical database, Identifying the various change inducing drivers and processes for each class and then modelling the database using both agent based and statistical techniques.
The Godavari river basin encompasses an area of 3,13,346 km square across the States of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orrisa, Chhattisgarh and a small part of Karnataka. The major LULC category in the basin is cropland, which forms almost 57% of the geographical area of the basin. Forests occupy about 35% of the basin area and area are located in the central regions in the states of Maharashtra, M.P. and in the eastern parts of Orrisa. Extensive shrub land areas are found in the central and western part of the basin particularly in the undulating and hilly areas and upland areas of rainfed central region. Satellite data of 1985, 1995 and 2005 was analysed to generate LULC maps at 1: 250,000 scale.
Two models were then modified for the purpose of analysing and studying the LULC changes: a process based agent simulation model, Agent-LUC [Rajan and Shibasaki, 2001], , and an empirically fitted statistical regression model ILULCDMP [Ashutosh Kumar Jha, 2015]. In Agent-LUC, land cover change agents are land owners, farmers, migrants and/or policy making bodies, all of whom make decisions or take actions that affect land-use patterns and processes. By simulating the individual actions of many diverse actors, and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time (e.g., the changes in patterns of land cover), Agent-LUC can be useful for studying the effects in land-use land cover processes. The model is designed and implemented in C++ along with QT libraries for user interface. Whereas, ILULC-DMP, calculates the correlations between the land use changes happening spatio-temporally with the driver datasets and predicts the future land-use change, by applying statistical regressions on those correlations on the current land-use and driver datasets. The model is designed and implemented in stastical modelling language R. The models first predicted the land use map of 2005 from the database of 1985 and 1995, with accuracies of .96 and .88 respectively for Agent-LUC and ILULC-DMP model when validated with the satellite derived land-use data of 2005. Then the models were run on the 2005 data to predict the land-use map for 2025. As per the further runs of the Agent-LUC model, by 2015 there will be an urban expansion of 404 square kilometres and by 2025, around 818 sq. kms of more urban area would be there in Godavari basin as compared to 2005 data. The agricultural expansion will be of 1345 sq. kms and 2752 sq. kms., both expansions will cause the deciduous forests and shrublands to decrease. The ILULC-DMP predicted map of 2025 shows an increase in built up area by 1840 sq. Kms, cropland by 4900 sq kms, decrease in forest and shrub land by 4422 sq. kms and 4290 sq. Kms. And an increase in waterbody area by 1875 sq. Kms.