Abstract
Structural damage during recent earthquakes in India like in Bhuj, Chamoli,
Koyna, Uttarkashi, Killari and Jabalpur demonstrate the need for developing a
comprehensive model for seismic risk assessment. The Bhuj earthquake clearly
demonstrates that the vast extent of damage and the consequent loss of life
associated with these events are due to poor construction practices. According to the
Indian Seismic Code IS: 1893-2007, about 60% of India’s land area falls under the
threat of moderate-to-severe earthquakes. Also according to Census 2011, the
number of houses exposed to such high hazards is almost 80%. Many cities in India
fall under the high seismic zones and have huge population and also there is a trend
of increasing due to lack of employment opportunities in rural areas. This lead to
uneven distribution of population across the country. Many people in these areas
live in low to high rise building. Unfortunately these existing buildings are not
earthquake resistant, and they did not follow the existing building code. This is
because of poor construction practices and lack of awareness about earthquakes.
These buildings are currently operational and need to be assessed and upgraded to
minimize seismic damage and improve life safety for future earthquakes.
As a case study, Nanded Waghala, which is the second largest city in the
Marathwada region of Maharashtra after Aurangabad was chosen. The city is the
largest urban centre and the administrative headquarters of the Nanded district. It is
known as a holy place for the Sikh faith and it is situated on north bank of the
river Godavari. According to 2011 Census it has a population of 5,50,564. This city
falls under seismic zone-II (IS 1893-2002) in Penninsular India (stable continental
region). This city is in the safe zone but close to Latur and Jabalpur. The earthquakes
in Lature (1993) and Jabalpur (1997) caused a lot of damage in the past. Many of the
towns in the state have a number of recorded earthquakes in the last 200 years
(records available from 1800 onwards). However the major urban centers that
suffered more than 2 earthquakes in the last 200 years are Latur, Jabalpur, Pune,
Mumbai, Marathwada, and Koyna areas. Some of the major earthquakes that
occurred around Nanded are Parsipada-Kaa Khurd earthquake of 1935(Ms 5.0),
Bhusawal-Sawada earthquake of 1938 (Mw 6.3), Mahad-Goregaon earthquake
1967(Mw 5.6), Koyna Earthquake 1967(Mw 7.0), Latur earthquake 1993 (Mw 6.1) and
Jabalpur earthquake1997 (Mw=6). Apart from these earthquakes, a series of minor
tremors were felt in south-central Maharashtra, in the town of Nanded from 13
November 2006 and until 2010. The strongest tremors were felt on 31 March 2007, 12
November 2007 and 14 December 2007 causing widespread panic. Over 500 people
have felt the tremors since late 2006. Since the first tremors, brontides (natural
explosive sounds) have been heard in the town of Nanded with or without being
accompanied by felt tremors. Minor damage and a few injuries were reported as a
result of these tremors. In view of these events, it is very essential to realistically
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estimate the earthquake hazard associated with this shield region and also develop a
seismic risk model to help in identifying the vulnerable areas and population groups
that will require the most assistance in the aftermath of a damaging earthquake.
In order to find out the potential risk to housing for this city, it is necessary to
evaluate the Hazard (H), Exposure (E) and Vulnerability (V). Over the last thirty
years, several seismic risk assessment studies have been carried out around the
world but the type of method chosen depends on the objective of the assessment and
the availability of data. This thesis addresses a new approach for studying the
seismic risk methodology and it has been implemented in the GIS environment for
expected earthquake scenarios in the future the city of Nanded.
The main objective of this study is to estimate the casualty and injuries that may be
caused by future earthquakes in Nanded city and this is very useful for policymaking
and the preparation of disaster management plans. These results are shown
in the GIS environment at the ward level. In this thesis, three expected earthquake
scenario have been generated using synthetic ground motion and Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Data has been obtained from the Municipal
Corporation and given in terms of ward wise building stock, and the building
typology and construction practices were identified through a field investigation. In
this study, two typical building types have been considered i.e., Reinforced concrete
and Brick Masonry buildings and other typologies were not included because of
numerical limitation. Fragility curves of each building typology have been
developed using Applied Element Method (AEM). These fragility curves are not
available for the Indian condition, so our own