Change-Point Detection via Structured Projections:
From Channel Codes to Embeddings
Author(s): Guneesh Vats
Advisor(s): Arti Yardi
Advisor(s): Arti Yardi
Masters
July '26 Report no: IIIT/TH//
Center of SPCRC
Abs
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Change-Point Detection via Structured Projections: From Channel Codes to Embeddings
Abstract
Change-point detection (CPD) is the problem of detecting abrupt changes in the statistical propertiesof a sequence of observations. Given a sequence whose underlying distribution changes at an unknown
time instant--called the change-point--the goal is to estimate when this change occurred. In the offline
(retrospective) setting, the entire sequence is available before processing begins. In the online (sequential) setting, data is processed as it arrives and the goal is to detect the change as quickly as possible
while controlling false alarms. CPD has a rich theoretical foundation, with applications spanning quality
control, financial time series analysis, climate monitoring, and biomedical signal processing.
This thesis studies the CPD problem in the context of channel-coded and modulated communication
systems. In modern wireless communication, adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) is employed to
improve spectral efficiency: the transmitter dynamically adjusts its channel code and modulation scheme
based on the prevailing channel conditions. For the receiver to correctly decode the transmitted data,
it must identify the transmission parameters in use. While blind identification methods can estimate
these parameters directly from the received noise-affected data, they assume that the parameters remain
fixed throughout the observation. In practice, the transmitter may switch its parameters at an unknown
time instant, violating this assumption. It is therefore essential to first detect the change-point--the time
at which the transmitter switches to a different set of parameters--before applying blind identification
algorithms to each segment separately. To the best of our knowledge, CPD has not been previously
investigated in the context of channel coding, and this thesis presents the first systematic study of this
problem.
The primary contribution is a two-stage framework for estimating the change-point when the transmitter switches from one binary linear block code to another. In Stage 1, we apply a data processing
strategy based on inner-product projections with vectors from the dual code, which transforms the received high-dimensional codeword sequence into a one-dimensional sequence of independent Bernoulli
random variables while preserving the change-point signature. We then compute the maximum likelihood estimate of the change-point on this projected sequence and analytically construct a confidence
interval around the estimate such that the true change-point lies within the interval with a desired probability, using the asymptotic distribution of the estimator derived by Hinkley. In Stage 2, we restrict
attention to the unprocessed received data within this confidence interval and employ a trained onedimensional convolutional neural network to refine the change-point estimate. The key insight is that the
coarse statistical estimation narrows the search region, while the neural network provides fine-grained localization within this region. The combined two-stage pipeline significantly outperforms either stage
in isolation: the coarse maximum likelihood estimate alone achieves a detection probability of 0.54 at
low noise levels, while the combined pipeline achieves 0.81 under the same conditions. We also address
the practical scenario where the channel noise parameter is unknown, demonstrating that the framework maintains consistent detection accuracy across varying channel conditions without requiring prior
knowledge of the noise level. The validity and performance of the proposed method are demonstrated
through extensive simulations under both the binary symmetric channel and additive white Gaussian
noise channel, evaluating detection accuracy, localization precision, scalability with sequence length,
and sensitivity to design parameters.
We also investigate two additional CPD-related problems. First, we study the problem of detecting
when the transmitter switches between modulation schemes. We develop two online sliding-window
detection methods: a feature-based method using higher-order cumulants as a discriminating statistic,
and a likelihood-based method adapting the quasi Average Likelihood Ratio Test to a sliding-window
framework. Both methods employ a confirmation mechanism to control the tradeoff between detection
delay and false alarm rate. This investigation is ongoing, and simulation results will be reported in a
forthcoming publication.
Finally, we study a cross-domain application: detecting authorship changes in multi-author documents. For each adjacent paragraph pair, three contrastively fine-tuned transformer encoders--DeBERTav3, RoBERTa-large, and ELECTRA-large--produce style-sensitive pair representations that are classified by encoder-specific multilayer perceptrons. Their boundary-change probabilities are combined
through a validation-tuned weighted ensemble. This completed system achieves macro-F1 scores of
0.995, 0.92, and 0.81 on the ea